Monday 15 October 2012

So what of the warming?


During the PETM, it has been estimated that somewhere between 2500 - 6800 gigatons of CO2 were liberated into the atmosphere over the course of a few thousand years resulting in a 6°C. In the last 200 years, we have pumped 270 gigatons of CO2. However, there it is a hotly-debated topic on when we should take the initial measurements. Most governmental organisations, including the IPCC, refer to the norm as pre-industrial levels. However, for a true reflection on the matter, I believe that the natural level of CO2 in the atmosphere should be calculated from when humans first began altering their environment some 8000 years ago with the advent of sedentary culture and farming. CO2 would therefore have been added through the loss of forests, other land uses changes, as well as the familiar burning for fires. This puts the amount of CO2 we have released significantly higher. However, it is the rate of change that is most alarming. The 5°C changes over the course of the PETM happened over a period of thousands of years; the climate change we face today is happening within 200 years. The effects of climate change are expected to reach their peak by 2050 according to the IPCC, but with continued failure of inter-governmental agreement and the far from strict meeting of targets imposed by the UN, this prediction may quickly turn to a long lost ideal.  

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